“Sensational New Poll: Susan Hall Trails Behind Sadiq Khan by 24 Points – Time Running Out for Comeback?”

“Sensational New Poll: Susan Hall Trails Behind Sadiq Khan by 24 Points – Time Running Out for Comeback?”

 

According to the latest Savanta poll commissioned by the Centre for London, with only three weeks remaining until May 2nd’s election, Sadiq Khan holds a significant lead over Susan Hall, securing 50% of the votes compared to her 26%.

The race for London Mayor appears to be tightening up as the deadline approaches, leaving some questioning if Hall can make a comeback in such a short amount of time.

Based on the data from the Savanta poll, Sadiq Khan currently maintains a substantial advantage over his opponents, including Conservative nominee Susan Hall, who trails behind with 26% of the votes. The Green Party’s Zoe Garbett follows closely with 9%, while Liberal Democrats’ Rob Blackie garners 12%, and Reform UK’s Howard Cox earns 2% of the support.

Despite efforts made by Susan Hall during this campaign season, the poll numbers have remained relatively stable since last November, making it increasingly challenging for her to narrow the gap between herself and Sadiq Khan.

This trend becomes even more evident when examining the regional breakdown of the poll – Mr Khan commands a strong presence within both Inner (57%) and Outer (46%) London, leading Ms Hall by considerable margins in each area.

According to Chris Hopkins, Director of Political Research at Savanta, their newest findings reveal minimal change since their previous voting intention poll, with Sadiq Khan retaining a formidable 24-point lead over Susan Hall.

This trend has persisted throughout the past several months; in March, Khan held a similar edge of 24 points in a Savanta survey, and in November, he led by an impressive 25 points according to a YouGov poll.

As the May 2nd election nears, there are now only three weeks remaining for Susan Hall to rally potential supporters and bridge the sizable gap between herself and Sadiq Khan. Given the current state of the polls, Antonia Jennings, CEO of the Centre for London, believes it is highly probable that Sadiq Khan will secure another term as Mayor of London.

 

While Sadiq Khan’s commanding lead in the polls increases the likelihood of his reelection as Mayor of London, it is essential to remember that no outcome is ever completely certain in political races. The upcoming elections mark the first time the Labour Party will utilize First Past the Post (FPTP) voting instead of the London-wide Additional Member System (AMS), adding an element of uncertainty to the proceedings.

Furthermore, approximately forty per cent of those intending to vote for Sadiq Khan are reportedly considering casting their ballots for Zoë Garbett of the Green Party. This factor could potentially impact the final result and may introduce unexpected twists in the race towards May 2nd.

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It is important to consider the possibility that the polls might not accurately reflect the true level of support for Susan Hall versus Sadiq Khan due to social desirability bias or other factors influencing how people report their intentions to vote. Some Londoners might hesitate to admit publicly that they intend to vote for a conservative candidate like Susan Hall, especially given the context of the ongoing London Mayoral race.

Historically, instances of significant shifts in voter preferences closer to election day have occurred due to various reasons, such as poor turnout and late deciders swinging one way or another. For example, Shaun Bailey, the Tory candidate for mayor of Toronto, trailed Sadiq Khan by nearly twenty points in April 2021.

However, the difference in outcomes was ultimately reduced by more than half, partly attributed to lower turnouts and undecided voters eventually choosing to support Bailey. Although speculative, it remains plausible that a comparable phenomenon could transpire in the London Mayoral race, potentially altering the current polling dynamics.

The data provided indicates that among individuals who express their intent to vote for Sadiq Khan, a notable portion is open to considering alternative options. Thirty-seven percent of Khan supporters stated they were likely to contemplate voting for Zoë Garbett, followed by Rob Blackie with 27%, and Susan Hall with 20%.

This trend becomes particularly pronounced among younger age groups within the Labour supporter base. Over fifty per cent of those aged eighteen to thirty-four years old indicated they would entertain the idea of voting for Ms Garbett, suggesting that she could potentially capture a sizeable share of disaffected Labour voters.

As the election draws nearer, it is crucial for all campaigns to engage effectively with their respective bases and persuadable voters to maximize their electoral prospects.

According to the polling data, amongst Susan Hall’s supporters, roughly thirty-four per cent expressed a probability of voting for Howard Cox of Reform UK, twenty-four per cent considered Rob Blackie of the Liberal Democrats, twenty-two per cent entertained the thought of backing Zoë Garbett of the Green Party, and a comparatively smaller percentage, fifteen per cent, mentioned Sadiq Khan as a viable option.

Chris Hopkins further emphasized that while a considerable number of supporters for both Khan and Hall are open to exploring alternatives, the incumbent, Sadiq Khan, faces greater vulnerability due to his position as the front-runner.

This dynamic underscores the importance of effective campaign strategies aimed at retaining core supporters and appealing to wavering voters to minimize the risk of losing votes to rival candidates.

The speaker acknowledged that Sadiq Khan’s prominent standing in the polls could encourage some of his core supporters, notably younger Londoners, to perceive the Greens as a safer choice despite the risks associated with the new voting system. These individuals, who might harbour reservations about Khan but prefer him over Susan Hall, could view the Greens as a more palatable alternative.

However, the speaker also pointed out that Hall’s supporters primarily lean toward Howard Cox and Reform UK, an untested political force with limited support in London.

Considering this fact, Sadiq Khan seems to hold the upper hand in terms of unseating any of the frontrunners due to his established base and broader appeal across different demographics within the city. Nevertheless, the race remains competitive, and every campaign must remain vigilant and adaptive to shifting voter sentiments as Election Day approaches.

The data presented in this discussion is based on online interviews carried out by Savanta between April 5th and 8th, 2024, involving a sample size of 1,592 London residents aged eighteen and above. To ensure an accurate representation of the population, the data was weighted accordingly.

Detailed tables related to this poll can be accessed through the Savanta Knowledge Center at savanta.com/knowledge-center/published-polls/.

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