Trump appears set to exert significant influence on ‘Super Tuesday,’ while Haley makes her final stand.?1

Trump appears set to exert significant influence on ‘Super Tuesday,’ while Haley makes her final stand.

 

Donald Trump is positioned to extend his path towards securing the GOP presidential nomination on Tuesday, as 15 states participate in the voting process, allocating more than a third of the party’s delegates. This pivotal moment will serve as a test of how swiftly Republicans are rallying behind the former president.

Having emerged victorious in nearly every contest thus far, Trump is anticipated to sweep through “Super Tuesday,” traditionally a high-stakes juncture in the primary calendar that has lost much of its suspense due to Trump’s dominant presence. Despite his quasi-incumbent status, a noteworthy percentage of voters in various contests have chosen alternative candidates, highlighting reservations among some voters and hinting at potential challenges in the upcoming general election. Nikki Haley, the remaining GOP contender, has pointed to this pattern as she advocates for the continuation of her campaign.

In many respects, an ongoing rematch between President Biden and Trump is in progress, prompting diverse perspectives among observers and strategists regarding the implications of GOP contest margins for Trump’s performance in November. The incumbent and his supporters are heightening their criticism of Trump, portraying him as a threat to democracy, abortion rights, and various freedoms. In response, the former president is vigorously targeting Biden on issues such as immigration and the economy, while leveraging the 91 criminal charges against him as a rallying cry in the primary, with expectations that these themes will continue into the fall campaign.

Trump’s team anticipates securing the nomination by March 19, according to advisers. In contrast, Nikki Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and the lone remaining GOP contender, has committed to remaining in the race only until Tuesday, hinting at a potentially swift exit.

Recent polling data reveals that over 90 percent of registered Republicans favor Trump over Biden. The current Democratic president is contending with subdued enthusiasm within his party and fractures in the coalition that narrowly secured his victory in 2020.

Concurrently, the primaries have highlighted Nikki Haley’s appeal to independent and college-educated voters, showcasing her robust argument against Trump. Super Tuesday is poised to offer additional insights into the composition of Trump’s support base and identify those who may require persuasion in the coming months.

“The upcoming phase of this race hinges on how Trump engages with Nikki Haley and her supporters,” noted experienced Republican strategist Scott Reed. While acknowledging Trump’s progress in unifying the party, Reed emphasizes the importance of treating Haley’s voters with respect.

The most significant contest on Tuesday is in California, where Trump has a substantial chance of securing all 169 delegates by surpassing the 50 percent vote threshold. These delegates play a crucial role in finalizing the candidate selection at the Republican National Convention in July.

In the past, California Republicans allocated delegates based on victories in individual congressional districts. However, Trump’s allies successfully advocated for new rules last year, aiming to expedite the accumulation of the 1,215 delegates needed nationwide to secure the nomination. While many Super Tuesday states feature winner-take-all provisions, the specifics vary.

The states participating in Tuesday’s vote collectively contribute 874 delegates, providing a comprehensive test of Trump and Haley’s strengths across diverse electorates. These range from the red stronghold of Texas to the battleground state of North Carolina, and even to solid-blue Massachusetts, where the Republican population tends to be more moderate. Other states and territories casting their votes include Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and the territory of American Samoa. Additionally, North Dakota will hold its Republican caucuses on Monday.

The Trump team suggests that he could secure the nomination as early as March 12, reaching this milestone by March 19, even under their most optimistic scenario for Haley, based on her best performance to date in New Hampshire. Over the weekend, Trump dominated GOP caucuses in Michigan, Missouri, and Idaho.

Campaign spokesman Steven Cheung declared, “Republican voters have delivered resounding wins for President Trump in every single primary contest, and this race is over. Our focus is now on Joe Biden and the general election.”

While holding a rally in Raleigh, N.C., before making appearances in Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine on Saturday, Haley maintained her pointed criticism of Trump in front of an enthusiastic crowd. She expressed concern about his comments on Russia, asserting that he was “willing to side with a thug,” and lamented that it is “not normal” to refer to opponents as “vermin,” as Trump has done.

 

During his rally in North Carolina over the weekend, Trump primarily targeted Biden, emphasizing issues related to the southern border—consistently identified by attendees as a top concern. Despite this focus, Trump didn’t shy away from commenting on Haley, branding her as “bad news” and describing her as “very average.”

One attendee, 67-year-old John Wayne Lambeth from Winston-Salem, urged Haley to withdraw and express full support for Trump, stating, “I am behind Trump 100 percent.” Another participant, 64-year-old Ben Hamilton from Lexington, suggested that Haley might be attempting to act as a spoiler in the race.

However, Hamilton also expressed a desire to understand how Trump planned to unite Republicans, highlighting an interest in the former president’s strategy for bringing the party together.

 

Haley has chosen to remain in the race as a conduit for discontent with the prospect of a Trump-Biden face-off, contending that a broader segment of voters should have the chance to support an alternative GOP candidate. With a 43 percent victory in New Hampshire and a 40 percent win in her home state of South Carolina, she cites these outcomes as indicative of widespread reservations about Trump, despite his overall lead across various GOP demographics.

In the South Carolina primary, where Haley previously served as governor, her strongest support emanated from more urban, educated, and affluent regions, although Trump maintained his lead in the suburbs. Statewide exit polls revealed her leading by nearly 10 points among college graduates and by 25 points among independents. Haley’s team asserts that Super Tuesday states, with similarly open primaries allowing non-Republicans to vote, present more favorable ground.

Although Haley’s coalition heavily relies on independents, it does not suggest a significant portion of Republicans will oppose Trump in the November election, according to Charles Franklin, director of Marquette Law School’s 2024 race polls. The latest national Marquette survey, released in February, indicates that only 7 percent of registered Republicans would choose Biden over Trump, slightly lower than the 9 percent of registered Democrats opting for Trump.

“Haley remains a contender due to minority perspectives within the party, even though Trump holds a dominant position,” stated Franklin.

In Michigan last week, Trump widened his lead over Haley, securing 68 percent compared to her 27 percent. This indicates that Trump’s advantage in the primaries may expand as the race nationalizes and shifts to areas where Haley had a less intense campaign, suggested some political observers.

Independent pollster Richard Czuba highlighted that Haley secured a third of the vote in locations like Oakland County and Kent County. He emphasized that these suburban areas were pivotal in Trump’s 2020 loss in Michigan, as suburban voters turned out in unprecedented numbers compared to 2016.

Speculating on how Haley’s voters in those areas might lean in November, Czuba remarked, “We don’t know where they’re going to go because they don’t know where they’re going to go.”

However, despite Haley’s performance, many Republicans dismiss the notion that primary results serve as a “flashing warning sign for Trump in November.” Constantin Querard, a GOP consultant in battleground Arizona, sees Trump winning, pointing to recent general election polls in swing states that consistently show a close race.

Nevertheless, numerous Republicans rejected the Haley team’s assertion that primary outcomes serve as a “flashing warning sign for Trump in November.”

Constantin Querard, a GOP consultant in the crucial battleground of Arizona, previously traversed the state collecting signatures to encourage Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president. Querard believed that DeSantis would be most effective at the forefront of the ticket, benefiting his down-ballot clients. However, he does not view votes for Haley as a cause for concern and referenced recent general election polls in swing states to support his stance.